Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom or 15% More Downside? It’s Up to the Fed
Something unusual is happening in the Bitcoin market right now: the asset has climbed more than 10% off its early-July low, institutional money is flowing back in, and yet one of the most respected names in crypto research is openly asking whether the Bitcoin bear market bottom is already in the rearview mirror. That question, raised by Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl, has cut through the noise — because the answer depends almost entirely on what the Federal Reserve does next.
Key takeaways
- Grayscale’s Zach Pandl argues Bitcoin may have already bottomed if the Federal Reserve holds off further rate hikes and economic growth stays stable.
- The traditional four-year cycle model predicts more downside, with a potential low in September or October 2026 — roughly 15% below current prices.
- Bitcoin is trading around $65,000, recovering from an early-July low of $57,717; spot ETFs have attracted nearly $1 billion in net inflows over seven consecutive sessions.
- Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October 2025 and remains about 49% below that level.
- Two upcoming events — the Federal Reserve meeting on July 29 and the Senate’s August 7 deadline for the Clarity Act — are the next major price catalysts.
Grayscale’s Case: Macro Conditions, Not the Halving Clock, Are Driving This Bear Market
Grayscale’s argument is essentially a challenge to one of crypto’s most deeply held frameworks. For years, Bitcoin believers have organized their expectations around the four-year halving cycle — the event baked into Bitcoin’s code that cuts mining rewards in half roughly every four years, slowing new supply and historically triggering bull runs. When the bull ends, cycle theorists expect a long, grinding bear market to follow a predictable arc.
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