Bitcoin in 2026: Down First, Then Up? James Check Explains

In this interview, on-chain analyst James Check looks beyond popular narratives to explain what the data says about Bitcoin’s current market structure and the outlook for 2026. Topics include sell-side dynamics, ETFs, sovereign demand, portfolio strategy, and long-term risks like quantum computing. 00:00 2026 outlook: “Down to go up” 00:07 Intro: Is the Bitcoin bull market over? 00:58 Bull vs bear today: what’s changed since April 02:49 Cost basis shift and why 95K matters 03:54 Bear market mindset — but not like past cycles 05:18 The biggest myth: “no one sells Bitcoin” 06:42 Long-term holder sell-side and a top-heavy market 08:48 Why Bitcoin didn’t crash despite heavy selling 10:15 ETFs and treasuries are only part of the story 11:36 Bitcoin is bigger than people think (liquidity shift) 13:23 The 70–80K “air gap” and downside risk 16:06 Why downside can be bullish 17:12 Base case for 2026: macro, liquidity, and risk assets 19:58 90% Bitcoin / 10% gold portfolio strategy 22:42 The quantum threat: risk, timelines, and reality 27:23 Panic vs opportunity if quantum arrives early 28:04 Outro Follow COINTELEGRAPH: Website: https://cointelegraph.com/ Telegram: https://t.me/cointelegraph Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/cointelegraph Twitter: https://twitter.com/cointelegraph Mobile app: https://linktr.ee/cointelegraph_mobile Cointelegraph covers everything Bitcoin, bringing you the latest news, prices, breakthroughs, and analysis, with emphasis on expert opinion and commentary from the digital currency community.