Bitcoin’s $69,000 test could expose its whale-led rebound as a fragile Fed gamble

Bitcoin trades near $65,978, below the $69,000 level Glassnode treats as the average cost basis for short-term holders, and the Federal Reserve's July 28-29 meeting will decide if this disconnect can be closed.

June payrolls rose by only 57,000, unemployment stayed at 4.2%, and revisions cut April and May payrolls by a combined 74,000.

Core CPI held flat month over month and slowed to 2.6% annually, giving traders grounds to expect a less restrictive Fed, with the headline reading, more exposed to energy costs, at 3.5% annually.

Brent crude futures settled around $94 this week, with an intraday high of $95.47. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to about 4.67%, and the 30-year yield has now spent 11 consecutive sessions above 5%, its longest stretch since May.

Market pricing for a July rate increase has moved into the roughly 25% to 33% range, with one CME-based reading putting the odds at 33.7%, up from 25.7% the previous day.

Glassnode's on-chain data show Bitcoin has already priced the optimistic outcome for weak labor data and a fresh oil shock converging on the same Fed decision.

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