When Will Crypto Altcoin Season Arrive? Raoul Pal's 2026 ALPHA Thesis, Revealed!

*When macro liquidity floods back in 2026, do we kill the four-year cycle — and kick off a true crypto supercycle?* In this session from Binance Blockchain Week 2025, Real Vision Co-Founder & CEO Raoul Pal lays out his 2026 Alpha Thesis: why today’s drawdown is a correction within a broader bull market, how policy-driven liquidity and fiscal stimulus set the stage for Bitcoin and altcoins, and the simple rules to avoid blowing up your portfolio. Raoul breaks down the signals to watch (Global M2, dollar trend, Fed/Treasury moves, SLR changes), the business-cycle trigger for altcoin season (ISM over 50), and why network effects and active usage matter more than hype. He also explains his own positioning: stick to majors, size into high-quality layer-1s, benchmark everything against BTC/ETH/SOL, and don’t over-index on narratives when new capital isn’t yet flowing. *In this interview, Raoul Pal covers:* ✅ Bull market vs. bear market: Why this is a correction — and why liquidity drives ~90% of Bitcoin’s price action ✅ Policy tailwinds: SLR changes, term repo, and fiscal stimulus as catalysts for Q1 liquidity ✅ What to track: Global M2, a weakening dollar, and Fed/Treasury signals as leading indicators ✅ Altcoin season mechanics: ISM crossing 50, risk-on behavior, and the “down the risk curve” rotation ✅ AI vs. crypto: Capital flows, retail return expectations, and why panic buying returns to crypto when it outperforms ✅ Selection is hard: Fund-of-funds approach, network effects (Metcalfe’s law), active users, and on-chain value ✅ Benchmarking: Every pick must outperform BTC, ETH, or SOL, or you’re destroying capital ✅ Layer-1 edge: Why high-performance chains (Solana, Sui) capture stablecoin settlement and usage ✅ Risk rules: Hold high-quality assets, cap the degen bag at 5–10%, avoid leverage, and don’t FOMO *⏱️ Timestamps:* ⏳ 00:00 – Introduction ⏳ 00:43 – Are we in a bear market? Raoul’s read: Liquidity explains 90% of Bitcoin’s moves ⏳ 02:48 – Metrics to measure market: Global M2, the dollar, SLR changes, and what Fed is saying ⏳ 04:32 – Why Raoul Pal thinks 2026Q1 should start strong ⏳ 06:05 – wen altcoin season? Raoul on ISM, risk-on indicators ⏳ 07:12 – AI vs. Alts: Retail returns, panic back in when crypto outperforms ⏳ 09:22 – Market structure, ETFs, options — do they divert from high-beta alts? ⏳ 11:06 – Dilution in crypto markets: are we going to only see a few coins perform? ⏳ 12:51 – Altcoins: What does Raoul Pal look for? ⏳ 14:26 – Raoul on finding altcoins: "Have a benchmark!" ⏳ 16:19 – Raoul Pal's on narratives in crypto ⏳ 17:54 – Stablecoins: How should we leverage on this? ⏳ 19:00 – Don’t “F it up”: avoid leverage, cap the degen bag, and beat FOMO ⏳ 20:25 – Closing thoughts ("Banana Zone") and Outro #binanceblockchainweek #raoulpal #altcoins #crypto2026 #stablecoins #bbw2025 *⚠️ RISK WARNING:* Digital asset prices can be volatile. The value of your investment may go down or up and you may not get back the amount invested. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions and Binance is not liable for any losses you may incur. It is your responsibility to ascertain whether you are permitted to use the services of Binance based on your individual circumstances. Not financial advice. For more information, see our Terms of Use and Risk Warning. *📢 Join the conversation:* ➡️ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/binance ➡️ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/binance ➡️ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/binance ➡️ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@binance ➡️ LinkedIn: https://www.din.com/company/binance ➡️ Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/binance *🔗 Download Binance here (iOS, Android):* https://binance.onelink.me/y874/cb98de36 *🔗 Sign up for Binance here:* https://www.binance.com/en?ref=ERQKP7ND&utm_source=BinanceYoutube&utm_medium=GlobalSocial&utm_campaign=GlobalSocial