Why Bitcoin’s Latest Bounce Back to $65,000 Might Not Last
Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $65,000 after climbing about 13% from its late-June low near $58,000. However, on-chain analysis suggests the bounce remains a relief rally rather than a confirmed recovery.
Unrealized losses remain larger than during the February crash, and spot demand continues to contract. Meanwhile, the price is below almost every major cost-basis model tracked on-chain.
On-Chain Analysis Shows Deeper Losses Than the February Crash
Glassnode data shows unrealized profit collapsed from roughly $1.4 trillion at the October 2025 peak. By late June, it fell to about $400 billion, the lowest reading of the cycle.
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss also bottomed lower in June than during the February crash, despite similar prices both times. The gap indicates coins changed hands during the drawdown, lifting the market's aggregate cost basis.
Unrealized losses held between $200 billion and $300 billion for most of 2026. In contrast, they hovered near zero throughout 2025. Such prolonged pain historically resembles late-stage capitulation, and early bottom signals have already appeared elsewhere.
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