Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Could Rally After 2026 US Midterm Elections
TL;DR:
- Bitcoin has historically entered bearish phases approximately one year prior to each US legislative election.
- A Binance Research report notes that the asset dropped an average of 56% during completed midterm cycles since 2014.
- Previous presidential elections showed a different behavior, with sharp rallies following candidates’ victories.
Joao Wedson recently published an analysis asserting that the 2026 US midterm elections could mark the beginning of a Bitcoin price breakout. His analysis links market cycles to the US political calendar after recording repetitive patterns in previous periods.
Bitcoin vs. U.S. Midterm Elections
Bitcoin entered a bear market roughly one year before every U.S. midterm election.
After the midterms, Bitcoin began a prolonged bull market.
Every time a president won the election, Bitcoin rallied strongly. However, shortly after the… pic.twitter.com/cbxNfwInum
- Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) July 29, 2026
Historical patterns in the US electoral calendar
The correlation between cryptocurrency performance and political events shows that the asset tends to adjust its price before legislative votes. According to research shared by the Alphractal founder in a post on X, Bitcoin typically enters a bear cycle one year before midterm elections, only to begin a prolonged upward phase once the election process concludes.
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