Bitcoin’s Final Bear Leg: History Says $35,000, On-Chain Data Disagrees
Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $64,000, roughly 49% below its October 2025 record of $126,000. Seasonal patterns from three past cycles now point to one Bitcoin final bear leg before a cycle bottom.
However, several on-chain metrics already sit at levels that marked previous generational lows. The clash between seasonal history and holder behavior will likely define the next six months for BTC.
Seasonal Roadmap Points to $46,000, Then Perhaps $35,000
Analyst CryptoCon mapped the closing months of the 2014, 2018, and 2022 bear markets against the current cycle. August and September delivered the first leg down in each case, with losses of 54%, 28%, and 28%. His projection for 2026 assumes a 26% drop to roughly $46,000.
History then adds a second, harsher leg. November through January produced declines of 56%, 52%, and 26% in past cycles. A repeat worth 30% would drag BTC near $35,000 by early 2027.
The first target aligns with earlier BeInCrypto research. A regression on shrinking final-quarter drawdowns pointed to a bottom between $44,000 and $47,000 by October. Benjamin Cowen's recent memo reached a similar zone near $44,000.
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