BlackRock Bitcoin outlook: 50% crash isn’t a broken thesis, it’s leverage
Bitcoin has shed more than half its value since October 2025, a plunge steep enough to rattle even seasoned traders. Yet the BlackRock Bitcoin outlook has barely wavered. The world’s largest asset manager argues that the crash reflects excessive leverage and shifting capital flows rather than a breakdown in the underlying case for owning the world’s biggest cryptocurrency, and that distinction is shaping how BlackRock frames Bitcoin’s place in portfolios going forward.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin fell more than 50% from its October 2025 peak near $126,000 down toward $60,000.
- BlackRock blames excessive leverage and changing capital flows for the drop, not a failure of Bitcoin’s fundamentals.
- Crypto futures open interest topped $90 billion near the peak, with roughly 80% coming from perpetual futures outside CME.
- Spot Bitcoin ETPs drew about $60 billion in cumulative inflows through October 2025 before more than $5 billion flowed back out.
- On-chain data from CryptoQuant and Glassnode point to renewed accumulation near the $60,000 level.
Bitcoin’s Sharp Price Decline and Market Positioning
The scale of Bitcoin’s drop is the first thing worth pinning down: the token climbed to around $126,000 in October 2025 before sliding toward $60,000, a decline of more than half its value. That kind of move invites comparisons to past crypto winters, but BlackRock’s reading of the data points to something more mechanical than a change in investor conviction.
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