Down 32% in 6 Months: What Binance Research Says About Bitcoin’s Next Move
Bitcoin ended the first half of 2026 near $60,000 after falling about 32% since January, Binance Research reported. Its Half-Year 2026: Macro & Bitcoin report described the decline as a third consecutive quarterly loss across broader financial markets worldwide.
The weak first-half performance also extended Bitcoin’s longer-term drawdown. According to the report, the asset has fallen more than 50% from its October 2025 record high near $126,000. It has also spent 275 days below that peak, underscoring the depth and persistence of the current market downturn.
On-Chain Data Signals Market Stress
On-chain data showed 10.83 million BTC ended the period in unrealized loss, while 9.22 million units remained profitable instead. Binance Research said this marked the first loss-over-profit crossover during the current market cycle, making conditions important for analysts.
The researchers noted similar crossovers have historically appeared near major Bitcoin market bottoms before stronger recoveries eventually followed. However, they cautioned that historical patterns alone cannot confirm the current cycle will produce the same outcome.
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