Senators Demand Wildfire Betting Regulation After $1.2M in Fire Wagers
Nine Democratic senators are pressing federal regulators to close what they call a dangerous loophole: the ability to place bets on wildfires while they are actively burning. The push for tighter wildfire betting regulation comes as prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi face growing scrutiny over contracts tied to natural disasters, and as fire experts warn that letting people profit from destruction could create perverse incentives.
Key takeaways
- Nine Democratic senators sent a letter to CFTC Chair Michael Selig demanding a ban on wildfire-related betting contracts.
- Polymarket accepted more than $1.2 million in bets tied to the 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires in Los Angeles.
- The senators warned wildfire contracts could encourage arson, insider trading, and other public safety risks.
- Kalshi bars wildfire markets outright, calling them a source of “perverse incentives,” while Polymarket says it currently has no active wildfire contracts.
Senators Call for CFTC Ban on Wildfire Betting Contracts
The letter, sent Monday to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, asks the agency to explain its plans for cracking down on prediction markets that let users wager on wildfires. Signed by Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon, Sen. Alex Padilla and Sen. Adam Schiff of California, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, and five other Democratic colleagues representing California, Minnesota, and New Hampshire, the letter frames wildfire betting regulation as an urgent public safety matter rather than a routine market oversight issue.
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