Wall Street Only Looked Like This in 1929 and 2000: What It Means for Bitcoin?
The Shiller CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 sits near 40 to 42, approaching the record of roughly 44 set during the late-1990s dot-com bubble.
That reading places equity valuations in rare territory, and Bitcoin holders have reason to pay attention.
What the CAPE Ratio Actually Measures
The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, or CAPE, divides an index by the ten-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings. Nobel laureate Robert Shiller developed it to smooth short-term distortions.
The method matters for interpretation. Using a decade of earnings filters out temporary booms and recessions, offering a longer view than conventional multiples.
History provides an uncomfortable pattern. When the ratio remained above 30 for sustained periods, subsequent 10-year real returns for US equities were modest or negative.
Two peaks stand out particularly. Both 1929 and 2000 preceded significant market declines, though the timing varied considerably in each case.
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