Bank of America Sets S&P 500 Target at 7,800, Sees Just 2% Upside Over Next 12 Months

TLDR

• BofA launched a 12-month S&P 500 target of 7,800, implying only 2% upside from current levels
• The bank also raised its year-end target to 7,400 from 7,100, which implies about 3% downside
• Strategist Savita Subramanian warned the market is overdue for a pullback
• BofA forecasts S&P 500 earnings growth of 33% in 2026 and 12% in 2027
• The bank favors large-cap value and the equal-weighted index over the cap-weighted S&P 500

Bank of America laid out a cautious outlook for U.S. stocks on Monday, setting a 12-month S&P 500 target of 7,800. That number implies just 2% upside from where the index currently sits.

The call came from BofA strategist Savita Subramanian, who also lifted the bank’s year-end target to 7,400, up from a previous 7,100. Despite the revision upward, that year-end figure still implies roughly 3% downside from current levels.

“Our 12-month target of 7800 is nothing to write home about, suggesting +2% from here,” Subramanian wrote in the note.

Market Overdue for a Pullback

Subramanian said the market has not seen enough weakness this year. There has been only one 5% drop in 2026, back in March, compared to an average of three such pullbacks in a typical year.

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