Bank of Japan Hike Odds Triple on Polymarket as Yen Intervention Fades

Bettors on Polymarket now put 81% odds on a Bank of Japan rate hike in September. Two weeks ago, that same bet sat at just 22%.

The shift comes as Japan's currency intervention loses its grip on the yen. The currency is on track for its biggest weekly loss in three months, unwinding much of its recent rebound.

Intervention's Fading Boost

The yen fell about 1% this week to 159.43 per dollar. That puts it on track for its worst week since May.

The currency has given back roughly half the gains from Japan's coordinated yen intervention in late July and early August. It was trading near 164 per dollar before that support began.

This is not the first time the boost has faded. Japan's April intervention followed a similar path, and the yen drifted back toward 40-year lows over the following months.

Tokyo's former top currency diplomat, Mitsuhiro Furusawa, told Reuters Japan could tap its yen war chest again at any time. He said officials could also signal faster rate hikes to defend the currency.

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