Bitcoin Faces a Critical Test: Can BTC Break Free From the Bear Market?

Bitcoin trades this August 10 within the $64,500–$64,900 range, showing an approximate 1% gain on the session and a weekly advance exceeding 3%. BTC manages to hold the psychological $64,000 level, yet price action remains trapped in a range that has progressively compressed: from the $58,000–$66,000 band observed in June, the market has moved into an even narrower range between $62,000 and $66,000 over recent weeks.

The relevant data point is not the current price, but rather what on-chain indicators and technical models are signaling about the phase of the cycle in which the market currently resides.

The Most Prolonged Capitulation Since FTX

Glassnode, through its Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap, shows that 45 Bitcoin price metrics have remained in capitulation phase for the most extended period since the FTX collapse in late 2022. The heatmap, which uses blue to indicate capitulation and red to signal overheating near peaks, has maintained a blue predominance throughout all of 2026.

Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft has noted that the indicator currently stands at “its coldest phase since FTX: late in the bear market, but not yet the unanimous deep blue that previously marked a floor.”

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