Bitcoin Faces a Dual Test From Dealer Hedging and the Fed
About $6.44 billion in Bitcoin options covering 81,700 contracts settle on Deribit just now, and the same day, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote as chief at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Now, does a call-heavy derivatives reset plus a closely watched policy speech amplify Bitcoin’s next move, or does it just generate noise that fades by Monday?
Neither event guarantees direction on its own. What matters is how dealer hedging around specific strikes interacts with whatever tone Warsh strikes, and history suggests expiries this size have underwhelmed before.
Friday’s book splits into 44,639 calls against 37,061 puts, a put-to-call ratio of 0.83. That leans bullish in structure, but it doesn’t function as a forecast, as plenty of options traders build spreads and covered positions that have nothing to do with a directional bet on spot price.
