Bitcoin futures carry trades are quietly beating Treasuries at 7.89% driving $850M Wall Street Bitcoin ETF spree

Synchronized CME and Treasury observations from Aug. 7 put Bitcoin futures carry above government debt, undercutting a comparison that is circulated across crypto markets.

Analyst Marc Baumann put annualized Bitcoin futures basis near 3% and the two-year Treasury yield at 3.8%, saying the crypto spread had trailed the government benchmark for 157 consecutive days. The official Treasury curve recorded the two-year par yield at 4.19% on Aug. 7 and 4.25% on Aug. 10.

A matched-date calculation using the Aug. 7 CME settlement bulletin and the 4 p.m. ET New York Bitcoin benchmark of $64,880 produced three gross annualized readings above the same day's 4.19% Treasury yield. The December contract produced the smallest reading at 5.69% on that basis.

Aug. 7 falls inside the proposed 157-day window, so that observation breaks a streak calculated from comparable CME and BRRNY inputs. A different venue, tenor, roll rule, or net-cost series may produce another figure; Baumann's thread did not disclose those parameters.

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