Bitcoin Just Hit 8 of 12 Capitulation Signals; VanEck Thinks the Pain May Be Nearing Its End

Bitcoin posted a modest recovery on Wednesday, which helped it climb above $64,000. The cryptocurrency is still almost 50% down from its all-time high, but VanEck’s latest analysis revealed that 8 of 12 tracked signals in its “Bitcoin Capitulation Check” are now firing.

This suggests that the market may be nearing the end of its correction phase.

Shallower Trough

VanEck said that all 12 signals entered their capitulation zones at some point over the past three months, while BTC itself has spent the past month stabilizing after recovering from its June summer low and may have bottomed near $58,500 on June 30.

Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded more than $950 million in net inflows so far in August, which points to some renewed institutional demand even as the crypto asset remains below its record high.

VanEck expects a shallower trough this cycle compared with previous Bitcoin downturns. Earlier bottoms saw drawdowns of 94%, 85%, 84%, and 78%. Those periods also came before the current spot ETF market and when institutional ownership was much smaller. More importantly, each of those cycles saw major failures across the market. This time, there has been no Celsius, Three Arrows Capital, or FTX collapse.

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