California Wildfire Bets Expose Polymarket’s Dark Side

Democratic senators want the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to stop betting on California wildfires. They warn that traders could start fires to win their bets.

The letter went to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig on Monday. Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley led it. It points back to wagers placed while Los Angeles burned in January 2025.

$1.2 Million Wagered While California Wildfires Burned

The Palisades and Eaton fires killed 31 people. They destroyed 16,246 buildings, according to CAL FIRE figures.

Polymarket is the largest betting site for real-world events. It opened its first wildfire bet on January 8, 2025. The fires had started a day earlier.

Traders put $1.2 million into roughly 20 questions. Rutgers historian Jamie L. Pietruska tracked the total.

One bet took $711,587 of that. It asked a single thing. When would the Palisades Fire be fully contained?

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