Can Prediction Markets Get Licensed in Germany?
Kalshi and Polymarket sell event contracts. Positions are funded in stablecoins, settled by code, and held in wallets rather than accounts. US states spent 2026 arguing over what that is: a financial product, or a bet with extra steps.
Germany answered the question last September and has not revisited it.
The answer matters for anyone pricing European expansion. Spain blocked Polymarket and Kalshi in May because neither held a Spanish license, which can be obtained. Germany is a different problem. There is no license to apply for, and the crypto rails these markets run on change what the regulator can do about it.
Crypto Rails Change What Germany Can Reach
Enforcement needs someone to serve. Authorities can fine companies and seize domains. A deployed contract has no registered office, so the pressure moves to the parts of the stack that do: front ends, hosting, market makers, and the media selling the traffic.
Payment blocking has the same problem. It works when a bank or card scheme sits in the middle of a deposit. Settlement in stablecoins removes the middle.
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