CLARITY Act Passage Odds Crash to 10% as Senate Clock Ticks Down
Key Insights
- CLARITY Act passage odds fell to 10% at Galaxy Digital.
- Senate lawmakers return Sept. 14 with limited floor time.
- Stablecoin rewards and ethics provisions remained major sticking points.
Galaxy Digital cut its estimated probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to 10% on Friday. The research firm cited unresolved Senate disputes and a compressed legislative calendar after the August recess. The downgrade left U.S. crypto regulation facing another narrow congressional window.
The estimate matters because the bill would set federal rules for digital asset markets. It would divide oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The bill also addresses stablecoin rewards, anti-money laundering controls, decentralized finance, and political ethics.
CLARITY Act Odds Fall as Senate Window Narrows
Galaxy head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said the firm lowered its passage estimate to 10%. Thorn said lawmakers had only a limited working period after returning to Washington. He argued the bill would require immediate procedural action and sustained floor attention.
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