CLARITY Act Vote Faces Procedural Fight, Not Final Passage

The CLARITY Act bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee by a comfortable 15-9 bipartisan margin, but now carries a 75% chance of dying before it ever reaches a final vote.

That’s the assessment TD Cowen Washington Research Group analyst Jaret Seiberg delivered in an August 10 policy note, and it reframes the CLARITY Act from a near-certain legislative win into a genuine coin-flip proposition heading into September.

This latest twist in the CLARITY Act drama comes as Kalshi bettors have been placing money on the bill being passed by July 1, 2027, with that market increasing 2% overnight, currently sitting at 35%.

Where the CLARITY Act Bill Actually Stands

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) aims to separate federal oversight of digital assets between the SEC and CFTC, designating digital commodities to the CFTC and investment-contract assets to the SEC.

Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) released updated text on July 22 and emphasized the urgency of passing the legislation, calling it “the last real chance…to get this right.”

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