CLARITY Act Vote Odds Fall From 47% to 32% Across Senate Ladder
Clarity Act odds took a hit this week. Polymarket traders now assign a 53% probability that more than 50 senators will vote “Yes” on the first Senate final-passage vote for the CLARITY Act, down 8 points, according to the platform’s “How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?” market. The odds of clearing 60 votes sit at 32%. Total volume is $39,633, with the market running through December 31, 2026.
This isn’t simply a bet on whether the bill clears the Senate. It’s a read on how big a coalition traders expect, and the gap between 53% and 32% is the story.
How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? Polymarket
Clarity Act Odds Slip: How The 60-Vote Wall Works
The contract’s language is precise: “Above” means strictly greater, so Above 50 requires 51 senators and Above 60 requires 61.
The ladder falls off fast above the majority line. Above 55 prices at 39% and above 58 at 37%, both down more than 10 points: the steepest declines anywhere in the market. Traders aren’t abandoning the bill; they’re trimming expectations for a broad bipartisan coalition. A simple majority and a filibuster-proof one are structurally different asks, and the Clarity Act odds are priced accordingly.
… Continue reading the full article at the original source below.
