Cryptopolitan Report: Nearly Half Of Our Readers Think Quantum Breaks Bitcoin By 2035

We asked our newsletter readers whether quantum computing would be able to break Bitcoin by 2035. Last week, on July 28, an AI model that has not been publicly released found a flaw in a post-quantum signature scheme that two years of human review had missed. No quantum computer was involved here. This report goes through what Bitcoin actually relies on, the actual threat to BTC and why what happened last week adds a whole new dimension alongside the quantum timeline.

Where Our Readers Landed

Add those who responded “yes, they probably will” to the “before 2030” cohort and what you get is 47% of readers see the potential of a quantum break on Bitcoin within the next nine years. To this day, the largest elliptic-curve key broken on real quantum hardware is 15 bits, which happened in April this year by a researcher claiming Project Eleven’s Q-Day Prize. For context, Bitcoin’s keys are 256 bits and getting from one to the one within the span of nine years is going to require an extraordinary run of engineering innovation. Roughly third of this audience is currently seeing this as a real possibility.

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