Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin’s Going to $1 Million After an AI Credit Bust

Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin's climb to $1 million depends on the AI industry's credit problems, not its earnings. In a new essay titled "Situationship," the BitMEX co-founder makes his case.

He argues that AI data center spending resembles 2008-style debt speculation rather than 2000-style dot-com overvaluation. He expects central banks to print enough money to eventually rescue over-leveraged AI lenders. That flood of liquidity, he says, is what carries Bitcoin toward seven figures.

Why Hayes Separates AI From the Dot-Com Bubble

Hayes argues investors mistake data centers for pure technology. In his view, they are really real estate developments packed with fast-depreciating chips.

He made a related case in May. Back then, he called AI spending history's largest fiat credit bubble and set an initial Bitcoin price target near $126,000.

"AI CAPEX is just another boring real estate play"
- Arthur Hayes,

In his view, hyperscalers increasingly fund data centers with borrowed money, not free cash flow. That shifts default risk onto banks and bondholders.

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