BlackRock Says Bitcoin’s 50% Plunge Didn’t Break Its Long-Term Investment Case

BlackRock said Bitcoin’s more than 50% decline from its all-time highs in October 2025 to its mid-2026 lows has not changed its long-term investment case.

In its latest report, the asset manager attributed the sell-off to “idiosyncratic deleveraging and flow dynamics” rather than a structural shift in the cryptocurrency’s trajectory.

Long-Term Case Remains Intact

BlackRock said that Bitcoin’s core role as an emerging global monetary alternative and a unique portfolio diversifier remains unchanged. During the sell-off, BTC showed a “dual personality,” at times acting as a haven asset, especially after the US-Iran conflict, while also showing high correlations with risk assets during deleveraging episodes such as February 2026.

According to BlackRock, this was shaped by investors seeking a hedge against macro risks and by market positioning. The firm said Bitcoin’s correlation with risk assets tends to rise when speculative positioning becomes high and is followed by deleveraging. Positioning reached extreme levels as the crypto rose above $120,000 last October, during which futures open interest exceeded $90 billion and was heavily concentrated in leveraged perpetual futures on offshore exchanges.

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