Social Security Administration Could Deliver a 3.8% COLA in 2027

The Social Security Administration will likely raise benefits by 3.8% for the 2027 COLA, based on forecasts from The Senior Citizens League and analyst Mary Johnson. The social security COLA 2027 estimate marks the sixth straight year of above average raises to social security benefits, a streak the program has not matched since 1988 through 1997, even as Medicare Part B premiums keep climbing alongside it.

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Social Security COLA: 2027 Forecast And Medicare Impact

How The Social Security Administration Calculates The Raise

The Social Security Administration ties every COLA to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. The agency compares third quarter data with the same period a year earlier, and the difference sets the raise for social security benefits the following January. Tariff driven inflation and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz after the conflict with Iran pushed this year’s 2027 COLA estimate higher, since fuel costs feed directly into CPI-W. Trailing inflation hit a three year high in May, then cooled slightly after the June report.

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