Dow’s 3-Year Winning Run Isn’t a Crash Signal, Still 49% Odds of Double-Digit Gains

Three straight years of double-digit gains have not raised the odds of a Dow Jones Industrial Average pullback. That is the conclusion of MarketWatch contributor Mark Hulbert. The Dow's historical baseline chance of another double-digit year still sits at 49%.

A narrative has spread on Wall Street that the streak alone makes a reversal overdue. Hulbert calls that reasoning the gambler's fallacy, the same error behind coin-flip superstitions.

The Gambler's Fallacy Behind the Crash Talk

Hulbert compares the market to a coin flip. A coin that lands heads several times in a row is still 50% likely to land heads again.

He points to 129 years of Dow data going back to the late 1890s. The odds of a double-digit year hover near 49%, regardless of how many strong years came before it. Historically, that baseline has barely moved even after multiple consecutive winning years.

Investors weighing whether a real downturn is brewing can compare Hulbert's data with Cramer's buyable crash framework. That guide separates mechanical sell-offs from systemic ones.

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