CLARITY Act chances sink below 20% as Senate’s path to 60 votes narrows

The CLARITY Act is heading toward a critical Senate vote with no clear coalition capable of delivering the 60 votes it needs.

Expectations for the landmark crypto market-structure bill deteriorated sharply Tuesday, with Polymarket odds of enactment falling below 20% after reaching about 34% during the previous 24 hours.

The reversal coincided with signs that Republican leaders are struggling to hold their own conference while Democrats demand additional concessions before supporting the legislation.

CLARITY Act faces hurdles

The Senate is expected to vote Tuesday afternoon on whether to proceed with the bill. Clearing that hurdle requires 60 votes, meaning Republicans cannot advance it alone even if all 53 GOP senators support the measure.

However, that assumption increasingly looks difficult as Sens. Susan Collins and John Cornyn are among Republicans who have yet to commit to the legislation.

According to reports, Collins has raised concerns about whether the bill could accelerate deposit flight from community banks, one of the financial industry's central objections to allowing crypto firms to compete more aggressively for customer balances.

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