US GDP and inflation data drop amid Fed’s most divided vote since 2016
The US GDP and inflation data releasing Thursday carry more weight than usual. With the Federal Reserve locked in a tense standoff over rates, three dissenting members calling for hikes, and the Middle East crisis pushing oil prices higher, the numbers landing at 13:30 GMT could either validate the Fed’s cautious stance or crack it open entirely.
Key takeaways
- The US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its preliminary Q2 GDP estimate Thursday at 13:30 GMT, with analysts expecting 2.1% annualized growth.
- The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and the GDP Price Index will be published alongside the headline figure.
- The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast a more modest 1.6% Q2 expansion as of its July 27 update, down from 1.7% on July 17.
- The Fed held rates steady at its July 28-29 meeting, but three FOMC members — Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan — dissented in favor of a rate hike, the most dissents since September 2016.
- The US Dollar Index is trading near multi-month highs, with RSI near 63 and ADX just above 25, signaling growing bullish momentum.
What the GDP Report Actually Contains
Thursday’s release is the preliminary estimate — the first of three quarterly GDP readings, and typically the most market-moving. Consensus forecasts point to annualized Q2 growth of 2.1%, according to analysts cited by FXStreet. That would represent a solid reading by recent standards, enough to keep the “US exceptionalism” narrative alive in market conversations.
… Continue reading the full article at the original source below.
