Europe’s Gas Crisis Just Got Worse and Winter Hasn’t Even Started
TLDR
- Dutch TTF gas benchmark surged above €70/MWh, its highest since March 2026
- US strikes on Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz triggered Iranian missile retaliation against US bases in Jordan
- The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of global LNG trade and remains effectively closed
- European gas storage is at just 62-64% capacity, well below the five-year seasonal average
- Goldman Sachs warns prices could hit €100/MWh if Middle East disruptions persist into 2027
European natural gas prices climbed to their highest point since March this week after fresh military strikes between the US and Iran raised fears about LNG supply disruptions through the Persian Gulf.
The benchmark Dutch TTF front-month contract rose to as high as €70.85 per megawatt-hour on Monday before adding another 1.3% on Tuesday to reach €71.30. In Britain, the NBP wholesale gas contract jumped 6.4% to 175.40 pence per therm after traders returned from a public holiday.
The moves came after US forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Iran responded by firing missiles at US military bases in Jordan.
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