Fed No Longer Projected to Raise Interest Rates in September

The US Federal Reserve is no longer projected to raise interest rates at its September meeting, according to Polymarket odds tracking the Fed. This comes shortly after the US recorded its 3rd largest monthly job loss since 2020. Even as inflation continues to run rampant in the US economy, forecasters now believe that the Fed will hold off on moving rates for the sixth consecutive session.

Contrary to Polymarket forecasts, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said this past week that the Fed is prepared to raise interest rates in September if inflation comes in higher than expected. Inflation in the US has been going down over the last few months, falling to 3.5% in June 2026. However, the re-escalation in the US-Iran conflict led to a spike in oil prices last month. Higher oil prices often lead to higher CPI (Consumer Price Index) figures. To add fuel to the fire, President Trump’s recent tariff spree may also play a major role in driving up inflation figures.

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