Fed Rate Cut Odds Slashed as Kalshi September Hike Bets Reach 60%–68%

Kalshi is pricing a 25-basis-point September rate increase at 59% against 42% for no change. Other reported measures put the probability at about 60% to 68% before the September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. On the other hand, Fed rate-cut odds have dropped to just 1%, as all hope of a possible cut fades.

That range creates a clear question for risk assets, including Bitcoin. If the Federal Reserve holds rates while market pricing continues to favor an increase, the difference between the expected outcome and the decision could prompt a reassessment of bearish positioning.

A hold alone would not establish a bullish outcome; the market response would also depend on the Fed’s accompanying message. A hold, accompanied by a dovish speech from new SEC Chair Kevin Warsh, could provide a boost to the crypto market.

Fed Rate Cut Odds Hit Near-0%: Why Has the Hold-or-Hike Tension Intensified?

The repricing follows a public policy split. Trump said that US interest rates were too high and said he respected Kevin Warsh and his responsibility to make the necessary decision. He had previously said he would not have selected Warsh to lead the Fed if he wanted interest-rate increases.

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