Federal Reserve Projected to Raise Interest Rates by 25 bps This Month

The Federal Reserve is now projected to raise interest rates by 25 bps this month, following the better than expected jobs report. After August’s jobs report nearly triples expectations, analysts are still worried about the next inflation report set to come next week.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs last month, well above the 53,000 that economists were anticipating. According to Fed Governor Michael Barr, he and the Fed would back a rate hike unless inflation shows convincing signs of easing soon. The current federal funds rate target range set by the Federal Reserve is 3.50% to 3.75%, while benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rates average approximately 6.66% to 6.68%.
Last week, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium that policymakers would “have work to do” if they lacked confidence inflation was returning to the central bank’s 2% target, his clearest signal yet that further rate hikes may be needed. Amid fresh worries over the US-Iran war, yields jumped again Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year note hitting its highest level since January 2025.
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