Bitcoin price breaking out toward $69,000 now opens a turbo path toward $84,000
A Bitcoin breakout attempt briefly pushed price above $65,000 on Aug. 5, but failed to sustain the move, even as Fed funds futures put the odds of a September rate hike at 57.4% as of Aug. 5, down from 80.5% a week earlier.
Brent crude fell more than 5% on Aug. 4, settling near $79 on hopes of a Hormuz de-escalation deal.
Lower hike odds and cheaper oil usually ease two of the macro pressures that have capped crypto all year. Bitcoin has held inside the same $62,000 to $68,000 range for weeks, and Friday's July jobs report is the market's next chance to settle the question.
A hike is still the base case, barely
A week earlier, futures assigned 22.9% odds to a half-point September hike, 57.6% to a quarter-point hike and just 19.5% to a hold, for combined hike odds of 80.5%.
The half-point scenario has since disappeared entirely, and hike odds have fallen to 57.4%. A hike remains the base case, though it is no longer the near-certainty it was a week ago.
The FOMC held its target at 3.50% to 3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three officials pushing for an immediate quarter-point hike. The statement called growth solid and inflation elevated.
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