Shutdown Odds Sink, but December Still Hangs Over Bitcoin

Kalshi’s contract on US government shutdown odds in 2026 priced YES at roughly 17% in early August; by October 1, 2026, it had dropped steeply from about 64% a month earlier.

That repricing arrived as Senate negotiators closed in on a stopgap funding deal. Since then, the Senate has gone further, passing its stopgap funding bill 90-6 on August 8 and extending its proposed funding runway through December 11.

For traders running fiscal risk into crypto positioning, the question isn’t whether the earlier 25% reading was precisely right at any given hour. It’s whether the direction of travel, sharply lower odds of an imminent lapse, actually removes the macro overhang that Bitcoin desks have been pricing into risk-off scenarios, or simply pushes the same fight to a worse date on the calendar.

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US Government Shutdown Odds 2026: What Moved The Market

The catalyst was legislative, not speculative. Senate appropriators initially worked toward a continuing resolution that would fund the government beyond the September 30 deadline, while negotiating limits on a pending Office of Management and Budget rule that would let political appointees block already-approved spending.

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