Gold Price Prediction for August 2026: Bear Market or Cycle Low?
Gold trades near $4,020, down 28% from its January record of $5,598, ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision. The gold price outlook for August 2026 hinges on two key technical levels.
Weekly momentum indicators point lower, yet volatility compression suggests a decisive move is near. Meanwhile, central bank demand continues to offset heavy ETF redemptions.
Fed Decision on July 29 Sets the Tone
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces its rate decision on Wednesday, July 29. CME FedWatch data shows a 64.2% probability of a hold at 350 to 375 basis points. However, traders still price a 35.8% chance of a hike to 375 to 400.
That hike risk remains elevated even though all 104 economists in a Reuters survey expect a hold. June inflation cooled to 3.5%, with core at 2.6%. Nevertheless, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has refused to soften his stance.
"There might be some that look at this morning's data and say, 'Oh, mission accomplished, everything is swell.' That is not my view."
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