Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Expect Fed Rate Hike in September as Inflation Stays High

TLDR

• Markets now price in an 87% chance of a Fed quarter-point rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting
• Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan both flipped to expecting a hike after stronger-than-expected August inflation data
• Oil prices have risen 37% in two months, topping $100 a barrel, pushing gas to $4.30 a gallon
• The S&P 500 rose Friday but faces headwinds from rising Treasury yields and crude prices
• Consumer sentiment fell to 47.8 in September, near its lowest point of the year

Wall Street is now almost certain the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its September 15-16 policy meeting. Markets put the odds at 87%, up from around 70% before last week’s inflation data came in hotter than expected.

JUST IN 🚨: The odds of a rate hike next week have soared to 86% 🤯 👀 pic.twitter.com/u5GmM9LCdY

- Barchart (@Barchart) September 11, 2026

Goldman Sachs dropped its previous call for rates to stay unchanged. The bank now expects a 25-basis-point hike this week. J.P. Morgan went further, forecasting quarter-point increases in both September and December.

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