Goldman Sachs lifts 2026 bond forecast to $2.3T on AI demand

Goldman Sachs expects U.S. dollar investment-grade credit issuance to reach $2.3 trillion this year, up from its earlier estimate of $2.1 trillion, as companies continue raising debt to fund AI investments.

The bank also dialed up its net supply projection from $850 billion to $1.0 trillion. It further asserted that they anticipate a steady, high volume of activity through 2027, setting their USD IG gross supply estimate at $2.4 trillion. 

So far, according to Sachs metrics, 24% of year-to-date U.S. investment-grade bond volume originated from AI-related issuers, pushing the market to historic highs. In stark contrast, AI issuers accounted for a mere 6% of European volume, while total issuance grew by only 2%.

Goldman Sachs anticipates interest rate fluctuations

Goldman Sachs expects a strong pickup in market activity in September. In its Thursday report, it noted, “Summer slowdown [is] proving elusive—driven in large part by AI-related supply—and market participants are expecting a very busy September. ”

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