BloFin Research: The Gold–S&P 500 Reset, Gold’s Outperformance Has Far to Run

Gold's correction since January looks very different when viewed relative to equities. Gold is now 21% below its January peak. Over the same period, the S&P 500-to-gold ratio has rebounded from roughly 1.27 to 1.79, a 40% move. That is a substantial relative-value reset.

We think the overcrowded gold trade of early 2026 has largely cleared, and the balance of evidence now tilts back toward gold outperforming equities. Gold sits roughly 21% below its January record, the relative-valuation stretch against equities has dropped almost 40%, and the buyers who matter for a durable move, central banks and ETFs, added to positions while the price was falling.

A Long-term Look

Gold has no earnings, cash flow, or book value, so its dollar price alone cannot tell you whether it is cheap or expensive, and the chart in isolation shows only trend and level. To judge relative value we use the S&P 500-to-gold ratio, the index price divided by the gold price per ounce. A high ratio means equities have outrun gold and gold looks cheap against stocks; a low ratio means the reverse.

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