If Bessent Repeats Yellen's 2023 Money Printing Playbook, BTC Math Points to $224K

Arthur Hayes argues Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is running the same money-printing playbook former Secretary Janet Yellen used in 2023. If the pattern holds, the math points to a six-figure Bitcoin target.

Bessent's Treasury has already doubled long-term bond buyback operations this month. Hayes says the policy mirrors the liquidity mechanics that fueled Bitcoin's 2023-2024 rally under Yellen.

Why Hayes Sees a Bessent-Yellen Repeat

Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer, made a similar case in a recent Hayes interview. He argues Bessent faces the same problem Yellen did in 2023. Both face a government that keeps spending. Historically, that has forced a Treasury Secretary to defend the 10-year yield below 5%.

Yellen's fix was shifting issuance toward short-term bills. The move drained the Fed's reverse repo facility from $2.5 trillion to about $100 billion. That drawdown ran from mid-2023 to January 2025, when Bessent took over. That cash flowed into bank reserves and, Hayes argues, into Bitcoin's 2023-2024 rally.

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