Polymarket CLARITY Act Odds Slashed to 15% of Being Passed in 2026

Bitcoin trades at $78,646.05, down 0.28% in the last 24 hours, a quiet number for a market that’s watching Washington more than charts right now. The reason is that Polymarket CLARITY Act odds contract has collapsed from 82% odds of passage in February to just 13% by early August, a move that’s rattled traders betting on regulatory clarity as the next major catalyst.

The Senate faces a September 15 cloture vote on H.R. 3633, the bill that would hand the CFTC exclusive authority over spot digital-commodity markets while leaving the SEC in charge of securities-classified tokens and exchange oversight. Republicans hold 53 seats; they need seven Democrats to cross the aisle to hit the 60-vote threshold.

Polymarket’s contract, which has moved over $11.5M in volume, now implies just a 13-14% chance of enactment in 2026, a stark contrast to Kalshi’s 91% probability that a Senate vote will occur at all before October 1. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong remains publicly “rather optimistic” about clearing 60 votes, but the prediction markets tell a colder story.

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