Quarter-Point Hike Leads Polymarket’s September Fed Pricing at 62%

Polymarket’s Fed rates dashboard shows a 62% probability that the Federal Reserve raises rates by 25 basis points at the Wednesday, September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting. The dashboard lists a 39% probability for no change. A 50-basis-point-or-larger hike, a 25-basis-point cut and a 50-basis-point-or-larger cut are each listed below 1%, according to Polymarket.

The pricing presents a narrower set of leading outcomes for the September meeting. A quarter-point hike is the dashboard’s expected decision, while no change remains the other outcome with a substantial listed probability. The cut outcomes are listed at below 1%, placing them well behind the two leading scenarios in this snapshot.

(Source – Polymarket)

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Polymarket lists a 25-basis-point hike at 62% and no change at 39%. Those figures put a hike ahead of a hold, but the hold outcome remains material in the displayed pricing. The other listed outcomes are all below 1%.

The dashboard provides probabilities for the listed meeting outcomes, but it does not explain the reasoning behind those prices or forecast how financial markets may respond to the decision. The figures show event pricing for the September meeting rather than explaining the economic developments that may influence policymakers.

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