Showing People Bitcoin’s Returns Makes Them More Likely to Buy Crypto, Fed Study Finds

TLDR

• Crypto owners expected 22% annual returns vs. just 7% among non-owners in 2021 surveys
• Showing households Bitcoin’s past 12-month return raised desired crypto allocations by about 2 percentage points
• Actual crypto purchases rose roughly 2.5 percentage points among those shown Bitcoin performance data
• Expected returns predicted crypto ownership better than age, income, or gender
• Bitcoin price gains may influence spending on durable goods like computers and appliances

A Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper has found that showing people information about Bitcoin’s past returns can change how much cryptocurrency they want to own and whether they actually go out and buy it.

JUST IN: Fed study finds crypto investors swayed by returns, with beliefs diverging on risk; mention of Bitcoin’s past gains can lift both desired allocations and actual purchases. $BTC pic.twitter.com/CgQqKGMzPF

- Bpay News (@bpaynews) August 23, 2026

The paper, published July 14, 2026, was written by researchers Michael Weber, Bernardo Candia, Olivier Coibion, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko. It drew on recurring surveys of up to 25,000 US households per wave.

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