Is the Bitcoin Dip Ending? VanEck Sees 8 of 12 Capitulation Signals Flash
Bitcoin has spent nearly eleven months grinding lower, and traders are running out of patience waiting for a bottom. But a new report from asset manager VanEck suggests the bitcoin dip may finally be running its course, pointing to a cluster of capitulation signals that have historically marked the tail end of similar downturns. The question now is whether the data justifies turning bullish, or whether it’s simply another pause before more pain.
Key takeaways
- VanEck says 8 of 12 signals in its Bitcoin Capitulation Check are currently flashing, with all 12 having dropped into capitulation territory at some point in the past three months.
- Long-term holders offloaded roughly 356,000 BTC over the past month, pulling their share of circulating supply below 60% for the first time in months.
- Bitcoin’s price has stayed relatively flat despite that selling, trading between roughly $58,000 and $66,500 since early June.
- BTC remains about 48% below its October 2025 all-time high near $126,080, part of a pattern that has repeated every four years since 2017.
- VanEck expects a shallower trough this cycle, citing spot ETFs, a larger institutional base, and the absence of major exchange collapses like FTX or Terra Luna.
VanEck Signals Bitcoin Dip Cycle Nearing End
VanEck’s research team believes Bitcoin is approaching the closing stage of its correction and may be sliding into an accumulation phase rather than a fresh leg down. That assessment comes from the firm’s Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush and Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel, who track a framework called the Bitcoin Capitulation Check.
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