Bitcoin Carry Trade Tops Treasury Yields at 7.89%: Will Wall Street Rotate?

The Bitcoin carry trade now pays more than US government debt. On August 7, annualized Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin (BTC) futures carry reached 5.69% to 7.89%, well above the 4.19% two-year Treasury yield recorded the same day.

The flip lands at an awkward moment for bonds. Long-term Treasury yields sit at their highest levels since 2007, and forecasters keep raising their estimates.

Bond Forecasters Keep Chasing Yields Higher

A Reuters poll sees calmer bonds ahead. The median forecast puts the 10-year yield at 4.50% in three months and 4.34% in a year. The two-year is seen sliding to 3.80%.

However, the same survey carries a warning. Eighteen of 22 strategists said the 10-year is more likely to overshoot those forecasts than undershoot them.

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