Polymarket Ukraine Odds for Russia Ceasefire Slashed to 13%

Polymarket Ukraine odds for a Russia ceasefire by December 31, 2026, have crashed to just 13%, down from 40% yesterday. The nearer-dated October 31 contract was priced lower, at a 7% implied probability. Both figures depend on a resolution rule that requires more than a diplomatic announcement.

The Polymarket event resolves Yes only if a ceasefire takes effect by 11:59 p.m. Eastern European Time on the stated date and remains continuously in force for at least 10 calendar days.

A ceasefire announced on December 30 that ends before the 10-calendar-day requirement is met would not satisfy the market’s rule. That creates a materially higher bar than a diplomatic announcement alone.

On the other hand, Kalshi does not have an active market for a possible ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, opting instead for whether Zelensky will visit Russia this year and whether he and Putin will meet.

Polymarket Ukraine Odds for a Ceasefire: What the 13% Price Does and Doesn’t Measure