Biggest Bitcoin Catalyst Is Not the Halving: Will US Debt Drive BTC to $300,000?

Bernstein has set Bitcoin (BTC) targets of $150,000 by mid-2027 and $300,000 by 2029. The case rests on US government debt, not the halving. The biggest Bitcoin catalyst, the broker argues, now sits in the bond market.

The timing is hard to ignore. US debt crossed $40 trillion this month, and a Treasury announcement, not a crypto headline, drove bitcoin from the mid-$60,000s to about $81,200 in a week.

Why US Debt Is Now the Biggest Bitcoin Catalyst

The US officially owes $40 trillion, a record it crossed on August 19. That figure has more than doubled in a decade.

Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, argue in a new note that four decades of falling interest rates are over. Every rise in yields now feeds bigger deficits and heavier borrowing.

Faced with that loop, Bernstein expects Washington to pick the quieter exit. Let the currency lose value instead of cutting spending. That path favors assets no government can print, like bitcoin and gold.

The firm's base case sees $150,000 by mid-2027 and roughly $300,000 at the 2029 cycle peak. If institutions move faster, Bernstein models $500,000 in 2029 and about $1 million by 2033.

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