TSMC Stock at $403: Record Q2 and $100B CapEx Can’t Stop the Slide

TSMC stock closed at $403.41 on July 24, trapped between record fundamentals and deteriorating technicals. Record Q2 results, a raised 2026 outlook, and $100 billion in U.S. CapEx have not translated into price momentum. The disconnect demands careful examination.

Key takeaways

• TSMC stock closed at $403.41 on July 24, below both the 20-day EMA ($422.30) and 50-day EMA ($419.29).
• The daily MACD histogram is widening to the downside at -2.78, confirming accelerating selling pressure.
• The hourly chart shows a full bearish stack with all three EMAs positioned above price.
• Record Q2 earnings, a raised 2026 outlook, and $100 billion in U.S. CapEx have not translated into price momentum.
• Key support sits at $398.50, with the lower Bollinger Band at $390.81 as the next downside target.

Daily Timeframe: A Neutral Regime Masking Bearish Drift

The daily chart reveals TSMC stock in a neutral regime with a clear bearish drift, closing below both key moving averages and showing no signs of stabilization.

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