Nike (NKE) Stock Down 49%: Why Wall Street Is Staying on the Sidelines
TLDR
- NKE is trading around $38, down nearly 50% over the past year and near 12-year lows
- Revenue flatlined at ~$46.4B in FY2026, back to FY2022 levels, while free cash flow dropped from $6.62B to $2.18B
- Brand popularity at back-to-school retail checks fell from 92.5% in 2021 to a low of 38.2% in 2025, recovering slightly to 45.8% in 2026
- JPMorgan downgraded to Underweight; analyst consensus sits at Hold with a $52.94 average price target
- The November 2026 Capital Markets Day is seen as the key near-term catalyst, with margin improvement not expected until H1 2027
Nike (NKE) stock is trading around $38, down roughly 49% over the past year and sitting near its lowest level in 12 years. The 52-week range runs from $37.95 to $76.97, and the stock remains well below both its 50-day moving average of $41.62 and its 200-day moving average of $46.34.
The numbers behind the slide are hard to argue with. Revenue came in at roughly $46.4B in FY2026, flat with FY2022 levels, while net income was nearly cut in half to $3.11B. Free cash flow collapsed from $6.62B in FY2024 to $2.18B in FY2026.
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