Bitcoin Could Drop to $39K Before Bottom, Analyst Warns

Pseudonymous crypto analyst NoName says that despite its recent recovery, Bitcoin (BTC) could still be weeks away from its bear market low.

According to them, an unfilled fair value gap (FVG) above the current price may be completed before a final drop toward the $39,000 to $49,000 range.

Analyst Expects Rally First, Then Final Drop

In a July 28 post on X, NoName said many traders have stopped expecting lower prices because BTC has started to recover, comparing today’s market mood with the periods leading up to the final declines in 2018.

“I saw the same thing in 2018,” the analyst wrote. “People believed in the rally right before the final drop. Sentiment was identical to what I’m seeing right now.”

According to the market watcher, Bitcoin is climbing because there’s an unfilled fair gap value above the market. An FVG is a price zone that gets skipped over during a fast move, which price often comes back to fill before continuing in the same direction.

Many traders see the current move up as the beginning of a bullish reversal, but NoName believes the rally is only part of a larger setup. The analyst expects Bitcoin to first enter and fill the gap before falling immediately, or within one to three days, into what they described as a multi-week search for a bottom between $39,000 and $49,000. Only after those conditions are met will the trader consider turning bullish.

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